On November 2, Grid journalist Jason N. Peters walked seven miles throughout Philadelphia, interviewing voters about tomorrow’s election. 67 people responded to an in-person survey and another 33 filled out online forms.
To win all 20 of Pennsylvania’s votes in the electoral college, a simple majority must be won by either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. In 2012, Obama secured 52% of the commonwealth’s vote, but in 2016 the State swung red as Donald Trump beat out Clinton with just 48.8% of voters.
The fight for Pennsylvania’s electoral college votes is fraught with contention. Pennsylvania’s electorate is defined by its major cities and their surrounding suburbs, which in 2016 favored Republicans. Pennsylvania Democrats have been working hard to mobilize voters in city centers in order to outnumber Trump’s more rural and small town strongholds.
Philadelphia is a stronghold for traditional Democratic politicians. Surprisingly, Hillary Clinton got more votes in the city in 2016 than Barack Obama did in 2012. However, in 2016 significantly more conservatives mobilized to support Donald Trump’s run for office.
Leading up to the 2020 election, most polls point to a Joe Biden presidency. In fact, a Fox News poll taken on Halloween has Joe Biden leading by seven points. Fear of being duped by the polls has America waiting with bated breath as Election Day is finally here.
Grid decided to operate its own “Day before the Election” poll to see just how Philly feels going into Election Day. We surveyed 100 Philadelphians from all walks of life to see who they were voting for and how they voted. The average age of the survey respondents was 40 years old; 55 men, 45 women; and respondents hailed from many parts of the city.
As of Sunday afternoon 93 million Americans have voted early, compared to about 58.3 million in the 2016 election. 64% of the Philadelphia voters we surveyed on Election Day Eve had participated in early voting. Of those voters 96% voted for Joe Biden.
Out of the 100 Philadelphians surveyed by Grid: 86 voted for or intend to vote for Joe Biden, 5 for Donald Trump, 5 are not voting at all, 2 are only voting on the down ballot, 1 vote for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins, and 1 person is writing themselves in.
Although the majority of Philadelphians support Joe Biden, the reasoning had little to do with Biden and more to do with their dislike for Trump. More than 10% of those polled said some variation of “F*** Donald Trump” when asked “Why are you voting for the person you are voting for?”
The “reasons I’m voting for Joe Biden” list would be better named “reasons I’m not voting for Donald Trump.” Several respondents cited that “Biden is the lesser of two evils” or that they felt they had “no alternative.”
The handful of Trump voters surveyed cited fears of socialism and a welfare state; but one voter said he’s sticking with Trump because “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.”
Non-voters said things like “both suck ass,” “our votes don’t count, look at 2016,” and “neither candidate has a plan for Black people.”
Our survey indicates that Joe Biden will win 86% of Philadelphia’s vote in the 2020 election. This would be the largest proportion of the vote won by a Democrat in over two decades. (Obama won 85.2% in 2012.) Experts expect an increase in overall voter turnout, which would favor Biden in a Democratic stronghold. In 2016 and 2012, 15,000 fewer voters came out to support Democrats than in 2008. In 2020, the Democrats are hoping to have mobilized urban voters to surpass 2008’s numbers, blazing a trail to victory for Joe Biden.
Philadelphia is crucial to this election. Although there is no question that Philly will go blue, how blue could tip the scales in favor of Joe Biden.
