COP30 to COP31: Will Climate Cooperation Wane Before Emissions Peak?

Ten years after the Paris Agreement demonstrated a profound collective will to address global emissions, the world’s efforts to confront the accelerating climate crisis reached a pivotal moment at the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in the Amazon. Emissions continue to rise as multilateralism is met with more and more challenges.

While COP30 participants acknowledged the Paris Agreement’s past successes, the proceedings highlighted a difficult reality: the political will needed for momentous multilateral agreement remains elusive. Instead, progress was characterized less by formal consensus and more by achievements outside the official process. These “outside track” successes included initiatives led by Brazil, Colombia, and the Netherlands to make progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels; the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF); new momentum on carbon pricing and markets; and various efforts related to non-CO2 gases. Parties did agree on a goal to triple adaptation finance, but they did not MANAGE a robust response to countries’ climate action plans also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The next Climate Conference (COP31) will be a partnership between Türkiye and Australia. A central question will be if there is a “new normal” or if the formal process can revive ambition and multilateralism. Is the WORLD pivoting permanently toward a model where the most significant climate action happens on the outside track?

Join Perry World House for this critical expert discussion with current and former climate negotiators.

Speakers

Sue Biniaz most recently served as the principal deputy special envoy for climate at the U.S. State Department, where, among other things, she led the U.S. team on international climate negotiations. From 1989 to 2017, she was the State Department’s lead climate lawyer and played a role in the development of all the major climate agreements, including the Paris Agreement. As deputy legal advisor and in other positions, she was responsible for legal issues related to U.S. treaty practice, the environment, oceans, outer space, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Asia, Somali piracy, human rights, law enforcement, and private international law. She is a senior fellow and lecturer at the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs.

Anne Rasmussen is a distinguished Samoan climate expert and a leading voice for vulnerable nations in international climate diplomacy. With over a decade of experience in high-level negotiations, she currently serves as the Chief Negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

A graduate of the University of the South Pacific with a background in geography and postgraduate expertise in climate change, Rasmussen began her diplomatic career at COP18 in 2012. Since then, she has held pivotal roles in the UN climate process, including leading negotiations on climate finance for the Green Climate Fund and serving as a Vice-President at COP27.

Dr Sally Box leads the International Climate Negotiations Division in the Australian Government’s Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. She is Australia’s Head of Delegation to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and has led the Australian negotiations team at the four most recent UN Climate Conferences of the Parties.

Prior to this role, Sally served as the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Commissioner, where she led the development and implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy and the environmental response to the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires.

Sally has over 20 years’ experience working in the Australian Public Service in the fields of climate change and environment policy development, program delivery, regulation, and communications. She has a PhD in Plant Sciences from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Science (Honours) from the University of Adelaide.

Sally was awarded a Public Service Medal in 2022 for her leadership of the environmental response to the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires.

Sally lives in Canberra, Australia, with her husband, four children and much-loved black labrador.